The Super Bowl line is dissected on a daily basis during the 2 weeks leading up to the game. However, Patriots and Rams backers may be better off waiting until after the game kicks off to put their bets.
If Super Bowl LIII is a back-and-forth battle, there is a really good chance a better line will be accessible on both sides throughout in-play wagering than it had been in pregame.
“Whichever team you are trying to bet, if they are trailing, you’ll get a better number,” stated Craig Mucklow, that helped pioneer the use of in-play
Gambling 21 years ago while employed for StanJames.com, a United Kingdom sports book.
Welcome to in-game gambling. In its infancy, vegas bettors and sportsbooks have had to adapt into the latest wave in sports gaming.
If the Rams or Patriots rally for a big comeback win, Las Vegas sportsbooks will surely take a hit against the fast paced betting option where the point spread, total and money line are constantly corrected during a game.
“Whenever a good team is behind and comes back to win, it’s only a matter of how far we lose,” William Hill sports book manager Nick Bogdanovich explained. “That is across the board in every game. When the Yankees or Red Sox get down three or four runs and come back to win, we are dead.”
Bad beat for sportsbooks
Two years ago, sportsbooks endured their worst in-play betting nightmare if the Patriots stormed back from a 28-3 second-half shortage in their 34-28 overtime win over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI.
New England was 16-1 about the in-play money line when it trailed 28-9 at the third quarter, and William Hill bettors cashed 159 in-play wagers at odds of 10-1 or greater.
“You don’t wish to get torched for seven characters,” Bogdanovich said.
Already a huge hit overseas, in-play gambling has become increasingly popular in the United States with the incidence of mobile programs. It accounted for 22% of the overall wagering handle at William Hill in 2017 and Bogdanovich quotes that figure has since grown to about 30 percent.
“It just keeps growing and growing, there’s no question about it,” he explained. “People love it.”
In-play gambling gives gamblers the opportunity to market their pregame wagers, change their pregame position, go to get a centre and much more.
“You have to watch the game and get a feel for the flow of the match. That is more important than any statistical tendencies,” professional sports bettor Frank Carulli said. “Occasionally I won’t bet the game to start, I will just bet it in-game. Particularly in the bowl games, as some groups show up and some don’t.”
Mucklow, a mathematician with an advanced level in odds, said he anticipates in-play gambling to transcend pregame betting in the U.S. in four or five decades.
“It won’t take long because individuals are at home and can bet on their smart phones,” he said. “I really don’t think it will ever hit the peaks of Asia, but I anticipate it to likely be a 65-35 split eventually.”
Mucklow is vice president of trading for Don Best Sports, a Las Vegas-based company that supplies data and odds to lawful sportsbooks worldwide. He leads a group of 26 dealers who track the in-play odds on up to 55 matches every day.
The affable Englishman gave the Review-Journal a behind-the-scenes look in creating in-play odds this season throughout the Rams’ 38-31 win over the Vikings in September.
Here’s a working recap of this action:
Algorithms and analytics
Mucklow stands for the entire”Thursday Night Football” game and can be a multitasking maestro, keeping tabs on seven screens that show two TV feeds, market odds, a wager ticker, a recorder to manage liabilities, a scorekeeping display and a trading port.
Mucklow’s fingers mostly dance on the trading interface that shows the in-play odds calculated by the Don Best computer algorithm.
The algorithm includes extensive understanding of trends and tendencies of players and teams and a whole lot more.
“We know the effect of pitching changes, the effects of an empty net, the impact of humidity and heat on the next half totals of soccer matches,” Mucklow said. “These kinds of bits of data influence the line. We are always looking for analytics, and some of the best bettors are, too.
“There is always someone smarter than you out there which picks up trends faster and does the data better. It is a cat and mouse game all of the time.”
The algorithm opens in-play wagering together with the final pregame lineup of the Rams by 7 and minus 300 on the money line with a total of 49. As the game advances, the model always adjusts the odds depending on the score, time remaining, down and distance and other factors.
Computer version merely a guide However, it quickly becomes apparent that the algorithm is merely a manual for Mucklow, who constantly overrides it punches in his own rates.
“It is a bit like the spouse giving you guidance,” Mucklow said facetiously. “It’s there, you then dismiss her.”
While the human component remains a massive part of earning in-play chances, Mucklow has implemented safeguards for Don Greatest dealers. They are limited to a maximum line move of 5 points off the computer version and can’t offer odds of over 25-1.
750-1 mishap
The latter safeguard could have prevented the FanDuel sports book at New Jersey from providing 750-1 in-play money line odds on the Broncos in the last minute of the 20-19 win over the Raiders this season. When Brandon McManus kicked the decisive 36-yard field goal with six seconds left, 1 bettor won $82,000 on a $110 bet. FanDuel claimed the error was caused by a computer glitch.
Rams on sale
The Vikings go ahead 7-0 on a touchdown pass by Kirk Cousins about the game’s opening drive. Ahead of the Rams even touch the ball, they fall to 31/2-point favorites.
“Everybody will come in and wager the Rams,” Mucklow said. “Since you could not get them at minus 31/2 pregame.”
Sure enough, wagers on Los Angeles start to pour in on the ticker. The Rams then tie it 7-7 on a touchdown pass by Jared Goff.
That escalated quickly
After two long drives take up most of the first quarter, three bets totaling $150,000 are put on below the adjusted total of 52.
But things escalate quickly from there in the shootout, as the teams trade touchdowns and Minnesota goes up 17-14 to push the first-half total over 241/2.
Too good to be true
Together with the Vikings trailing 21-17 and facing a second-and-20 at the two-minute warning, Mucklow tries to entice cash on Minnesota, moving it to plus 425 on the cash line.
He does so because the Rams are poised to have back-to-back possessions in the conclusion of the first half and start of the next half.
“So it could be a 10-point or 14-point swing,” he explained. “The concept is to place the number higher on the Vikings money line because most individuals don’t realize who is getting the ball in the second half. I had to double check myself”
After Minnesota punts, Mucklow makes it 5-1 on the money line and money pours in on the Vikings.
“Because, aesthetically, it appears wrong,” he explained.
Two plays later, Goff hits Brandin Cooks for a 47-yard touchdown pass to put the Rams up 28-17. Mucklow moves Minnesota to 7-1 moments after bettors jumped all over it in 5-1.
“It looked too good to be true,” he said. “It does not always work out like this.”
Bettors pound under The Vikings near 31-28 late in the third quarter to kill $157,000 in bets on beneath 52. However, a total of 313,000 is still at stake for a single Don Best customer on underneath 671/2.
“I won’t find spiritual until the fourth quarter,” Mucklow said.
With the Rams top 38-28 midway through the fourth and facing first and goal at the 6, they look like a lock to drive the total over 671/2. However, Sam Ficken misses a 28-yard field goal.
“In about four minutes, I’ll be praying to God to get a pick-six,” Mucklow said.
Off the grid
With six minutes remaining, the algorithm automatically shuts off and Mucklow happens over manually.
“On any game, with six minutes left, it shuts down because it can’t tell the match condition,” he explained. “There are certain things you can’t instruct an algorithm. You can not teach an algorithm inspiration. It can’t tell when a team is trying to kill the clock”
True to his word, Mucklow prays for a pick-six from Cousins after $180,000 in wagers are put on beneath 731/2.
“I need things,” he said. “I do not care who.”
Assessing it
Cousins immediately throws a pass toward the sideline that seems ripe for the picking. It falls incomplete, but Dan Bailey’s 40-yard field target makes the score 38-31 and kills all bets on under 671/2.
Together with 1:29 left, Cousins loses a fumble at midfield and the Rams run the clock out as most pregame bettors opt for a push.
The in-play roller-coaster ride ends on a high note for one of Don Best’s biggest clients. Mucklow turns a profit of $233,000 from $1.5 million in wagers to get a 15.5 percent hold.
“I’ll take 15 percent each and every single day of the week,” he explained. “I am in shape right now, but there’s bad days and good days. You want a little bit of chance at the conclusion.”
More gambling: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
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