This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week and that I can’t wait to chase these huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first seat into it a week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week at his -800 betting line. I will take that free square and move on. He should dominate this fight and he can complete it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I want to try to have at least 10x from each fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points . That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones would get a finish then maybe he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. However, this is a potential 5-round fight, and I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be very highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill off half the area because that wouldn’t be enough points to place him that $50k lineup.
GPP play of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be from his wrestling. He is among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He will not want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, so I expect him to shoot takedowns right away and string wrestle till he gets them. When he gets top control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he should take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the victory.
Drama of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I believe he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the quantity alone from Sanchez should win it for him there so long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and that I really don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the fight hits the floor. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to cover up for those guys like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he can grind out a decision win here I think he can become 10x that salary and if we could get a win against him in the inexpensive salary, I think we’ll be in line for this $50k win if we hit our other five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the guy I want the least of. I try to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I believe that a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and that he actually doesn’t have the 1 punch/kick power it might take to pull off. I’d be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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