This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week and I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first chair into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will probably have a few shots at the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my money game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square and move on. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I’m making lineups, I want to try to get at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round battle, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get from Jon Jones since he’ll be quite highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill off half the area because that would not be enough points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it’ll be from his wrestling. He is among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting a chance from the UFC after controlling every business he has been in. He won’t want to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, so that I expect him to take takedowns right away and string wrestle till he gets them. Once he receives high control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A man like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he is able to come up with the victory.
Underdog play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the quantity from Sanchez should win it there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him getting knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez are the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. A submission is Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been filed. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego allows us to pay up for those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind a determination win here I think he can become 10x that salary and if we can get a win from him at the inexpensive salary, then I think we’ll be in line for this $50k win if we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using each fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I need the very least of. I try to get a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Instead, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I believe that a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and that he actually does not possess the 1 punch/kick power it might take to pull off. I would be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, then he would be a simple fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 58-37 to get +177.62un (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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