This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with two title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a good amount of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest cash game punt of time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is now -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At that cost she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other areas to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this fight gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at one 10-point knock down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than enough to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have much time at the match left. I think we role with the favored here and toss into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I think he’s a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked out anybody, so I think we have a solid floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing since I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands multiple takedowns in this fight and may win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I’m certain that he will be going for even greater than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and that I believe he gets a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week , but the person I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not believe she can win, since she for sure could, and I think she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d require a complete from her in this struggle to receive 10x that salary and I think that’s very unlikely to happen. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points and that was contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still would not be enough here to put her in the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my entire DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick forecasts, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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